Commenter: Seems like every genocide is a myth
RF: Every genocide occurs where you have crappy population estimates.
Commenter: Do you know of any genocides that actually happened?
RF: Ancient ones that I can't decisively disconfirm.
I suspect that Russians, in the early stages of their reconquest of tatar lands, butchered cities they took. Timur claims to have slaughtered entire cities, but that was from a time when such claims were actually encouraged by the supposed perpetrators to instill fear.
To engage in genocide, rulers have to be very far-sighted, because it's an intergenerational strategy. It's almost always more immediately efficient to enslave the existing population than kill them, so you have to be thinking a lot further down the line to when the virgin land can be resettled by your own ethnic group.
I.e. genocide, unless done for the purpose of instilling fear, requires a leader who is an ethnonationalist (which most ancient rulers were not) and is thinking that far ahead. So, pretty rare.
Maybe the cambodian genocides? I haven't looked into that, but I suspect that's gonna end up being another mostly-hoax.
The period in which you get ethnonationalist PEOPLE is actually fairly narrow, and even then the rulers tend to be less ethnically-oriented than those they rule over.
There's a better case for sporadic "atrocities", but if you're talking about wholesale extermination programs of entire ethnic groups, that's first off a lot harder to do, and usually has very little support among the ruling class at the time since it's not something that's ever profitable in the time horizons that heads of state tend to have.
And by the time you get to Hitler, who was an ethnonationalist and did have the time horizon to potentially carry out a mass-extermination, then you have a bunch more direct evidence saying that even he, one of the few leaders with the potential to do it, didn't actually do it.
https://archive.is/zjMaU
https://archive.is/S8ln5
Ryan seems to be saying that genocides, if they exist, are extremely rare to non-existent. At first this sounded crazy to me, and it's still hard to wrap my head around. But the more I think about it, I realize what he is saying makes some sense. Of course, violent atrocities exist throughout human history, but how often do actual attempts to exterminate whole groups come about? How many successful genocides have happened? If you take the "Armenian genocide", if they really were trying to wipe out a whole group, they failed as the Armenians are still around. So that begs the question, was that really their goal? Should we be throwing out accusations of genocide, attempting to exterminate a whole people, without sufficient proof?
I'm not saying for sure that Ryan is right, it's something I'll have to think about more. But if he is, then this has direct implications on the Nazi holocaust. If the Nazis really are being accused of something so rare, even potentially non-existent in the modern era, then that should form our view of the prior probability (the probability that we assign to this event before looking at the evidence) that these accusations are true.