Poland’s Demographics
The number of Jews counted in the Polish census of 1931 was 3,113,900. Estimates of the Jewish population in 1939, the year Poland was invaded by Germany and the Soviet Union, place the population between 3.3 and 3.5 million. In The Dissolution of Eastern European Jewry (hereafter cited in the text) Walter Sanning tried to depopulate Poland of its Jews so that few would come under Nazi control. He placed the actual number of Jews in Poland at the war’s outbreak in 1939 at 2,664,000 (p. 32).
He did this by citing a statement in a publication by Munich’s Institute of Contemporary History that in the years following 1933 about 100,000 Jews annually emigrated from Poland. The Institute gives no source for this assertion. In fact, this is the only mention of Polish emigration in the article. The article deals mostly with German-Jewish emigration. Moreover, the article does not state to which countries these Jews emigrated from Poland whereas it gives such a discussion for German emigrants. The purpose of the article, as is clear from the title, is to deal with German emigration.
[Footnote: Hermann Graml, “Die Auswanderung Der Juden aus Deutschland Zwischen 1933 und 1939” [The Emigration of Jews from Germany Between 1933 and 1939], Gutachten des Instituts für Zeitgeschichte (Munich, 1958), 79-85. The article only lists two sources in its bibliography. One of the sources is Mark Wischnitzer’s Die Juden in der Welt [The Jews in the World] (Berlin:1935). However, Wischnitzer’s figures on Polish-Jewish emigration deal with the period from 1921 and do not support the Institute’s figures. Die Juden in der Welt, 204-207, 212-215. Wischnitzer had used the official numbers when discussing Polish-Jewish emigration. (Source cited in note 5 herein.) It is possible that Herman Graml, the author of the Institute’s article, misunderstood Wischnitzer’s data.]
The official Polish figures for the years 1931-1937 place total Jewish emigration at 109,716. These figures were published in 1940, before the Holocaust, so that Sanning could not claim they were “politically motivated”. The figures also gave a breakdown as to which countries the Polish Jews immigrated. A Jewish emigration of the size claimed by the Institute would surely have been noticed. However, there is no mention of such a large scale emigration in any of the studies dealing with Polish Jews in the inter war years from 1919-1939. When figures are cited, the official ones are used. A study of minorities in Poland during the inter war years also cites the official Polish emigration figures. It is probable that few, if any, are even familiar with the Institute’s numbers.
Sanning did not take into consideration that there were simply not enough outlets for a Jewish emigration of the size claimed. Most Polish-Jewish emigration from 1931 onwards was to Palestine. However, there were severe restrictions on immigration to Palestine and Polish Jews had to compete against other Jews. Moreover, within the Polish-Jewish Community there was a concerted effort to discourage Jewish emigration by such diverse groups as Jewish Bundists, assimilationists and even Zionists.
Faced with an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Polish-Jewish emigration of 100,000 annually could not have taken place, most scholars would probably relegate the Institute’s statement to a footnote. At the very least, any serious writer who wanted to use such a number would ask the Institute how it obtained its figures and where these alleged emigrants went. It is obvious that Sanning never did this. However, this writer did make such an inquiry of the Institute. The Institute’s reply failed to shed any light on its figures.
[Footnote: I wrote to the Institute on April 18, 1996 citing the official statistics. I asked how the Institute arrived at the 100,000 annual number and where these Jews immigrated to. In the reply of May 22, 1996 I was only referred to the article, which the Institute sent me. However, as noted above, the article does not address these issues.]
This would not be the first time that Sanning seized at a number, no matter how tenuous, and used it as authority while ignoring all contrary evidence. He would usually justify his source by stating that they were “Zionist” or “Jewish”. He incorrectly called the Institute “pro-Zionist” (p. 32) and state that its figures were right while the official figures are subject to doubt. However, Sanning could not trace these emigrants to any country. He simply said they went to Palestine, the United States, South America and Western European countries without providing any details. The official figures trace the destinations as well as departures.[…]
Let us now assume that, contrary to what becomes apparent from Zimmerman’s analysis, most Polish Jews left the country before or during the Nazi occupation (evidence in this direction, if existing, would be of interest).
Where would the bulk of those 3.3 to 3.5 million Polish Jews, or their descendants, be found now?
Let us have a look at the possible destinations.
Israel
[...]Population:
6,116,533 (July 2002 est.)
note: includes about 187,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank, about 20,000 in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, more than 5,000 in the Gaza Strip, and fewer than 177,000 in East Jerusalem (February 2003 est.) (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Jewish 80.1% (Europe/America-born 32.1%, Israel-born 20.8%, Africa-born 14.6%, Asia-born 12.6%), non-Jewish 19.9% (mostly Arab) (1996 est.)[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/is.html
Belarus
[...]Population:
10,322,151 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Belarusian 81.2%, Russian 11.4%, Polish, Ukrainian, and other 7.4%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/bo.html
Ukraine
Population:
48,055,439 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Ukrainian 77.8%, Russian 17.3%, Belarusian 0.6%, Moldovan 0.5%, Crimean Tatar 0.5%, Bulgarian 0.4%, Hungarian 0.3%, Romanian 0.3%, Polish 0.3%, Jewish 0.2%, other 1.8% (2001)[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/up.html
Russia
[...]Population:
144,526,278 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Russian 81.5%, Tatar 3.8%, Ukrainian 3%, Chuvash 1.2%, Bashkir 0.9%, Belarusian 0.8%, Moldavian 0.7%, other 8.1% (1989)[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/rs.html
United States
[...]Population:
290,342,554 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
white 77.1%, black 12.9%, Asian 4.2%, Amerindian and Alaska native 1.5%, native Hawaiian and other Pacific islander 0.3%, other 4% (2000)
note: a separate listing for Hispanic is not included because the US Census Bureau considers Hispanic to mean a person of Latin American descent (including persons of Cuban, Mexican, or Puerto Rican origin) living in the US who may be of any race or ethnic group (white, black, Asian, etc.)
Religions:
Protestant 56%, Roman Catholic 28%, Jewish 2%, other 4%, none 10% (1989)[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/us.html
Let’s also look at other former Soviet republics, which according to the last census data available to Himmler’s statistician Richard Korherr had a Jewish population of 2,570,330 in 1926.
Latvia
[...]Population:
2,348,784 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Latvian 57.7%, Russian 29.6%, Belarusian 4.1%, Ukrainian 2.7%, Polish 2.5%, Lithuanian 1.4%, other 2%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/lg.html
Lituania
[...] Population:
3,592,561 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Lithuanian 80.6%, Russian 8.7%, Polish 7%, Belarusian 1.6%, other 2.1%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/lh.html
Estonia
[...]Population:
1,408,556 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Estonian 65.3%, Russian 28.1%, Ukrainian 2.5%, Belarusian 1.5%, Finn 1%, other 1.6% (1998)[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/en.html
Armenia
[...]Population:
3,326,448
note: Armenia's first census since independence was conducted in October 2001; official results are not expected until late 2003 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Armenian 93%, Azeri 1%, Russian 2%, other (mostly Yezidi Kurds) 4% (2002)
note: as of the end of 1993, virtually all Azeris had emigrated from Armenia.[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/am.html
Azerbaijan
[...] Population:
7,830,764 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Azeri 90%, Dagestani 3.2%, Russian 2.5%, Armenian 2%, other 2.3% (1998 est.)
note: almost all Armenians live in the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh region[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/aj.html
Georgia
[...]Population:
4,934,413 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Georgian 70.1%, Armenian 8.1%, Russian 6.3%, Azeri 5.7%, Ossetian 3%, Abkhaz 1.8%, other 5%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/gg.html
Kazakhstan
[...]Population:
16,763,795 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Kazakh (Qazaq) 53.4%, Russian 30%, Ukrainian 3.7%, Uzbek 2.5%, German 2.4%, Uighur 1.4%, other 6.6% (1999 census)[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/kz.html
Kyrgyzstan
[...] Population:
4,892,808 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Kyrgyz 52.4%, Russian 18%, Uzbek 12.9%, Ukrainian 2.5%, German 2.4%, other 11.8%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/kg.html
Tajikistan
[...]Population:
6,863,752 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Tajik 64.9%, Uzbek 25%, Russian 3.5% (declining because of emigration), other 6.6%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/ti.html
Turkmenistan
[...] Population:
4,775,544 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Turkmen 77%, Uzbek 9.2%, Russian 6.7%, Kazakh 2%, other 5.1% (1995)[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/tx.html
Uzbekistan
[...]Population:
25,981,647 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Uzbek 80%, Russian 5.5%, Tajik 5%, Kazakh 3%, Karakalpak 2.5%, Tatar 1.5%, other 2.5% (1996 est.)[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/uz.html
Have I forgotten any former Soviet republic? If so, please let me know.
Now let’s look at some classic immigration countries other than the US, by alphabetical order.
Argentina
[...]Population:
38,740,807 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
white (mostly Spanish and Italian) 97%, mestizo, Amerindian, or other nonwhite groups 3%
Religions:
nominally Roman Catholic 92% (less than 20% practicing), Protestant 2%, Jewish 2%, other 4%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/ar.html
Australia
[...] Population:
19,731,984 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Caucasian 92%, Asian 7%, aboriginal and other 1%
Religions:
Anglican 26.1%, Roman Catholic 26%, other Christian 24.3%, non-Christian 11%, other 12.6%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/as.html
Brazil
[...]Population:
182,032,604
note: Brazil took a count in August 2000, which reported a population of 169,799,170; that figure was about 3.3% lower than projections by the US Census Bureau, and is close to the implied underenumeration of 4.6% for the 1991 census; estimates for this country explicitly take into account the effects of excess mortality due to AIDS; this can result in lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality and death rates, lower population and growth rates, and changes in the distribution of population by age and sex than would otherwise be expected (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
white (includes Portuguese, German, Italian, Spanish, Polish) 55%, mixed white and black 38%, black 6%, other (includes Japanese, Arab, Amerindian) 1%
Religions:
Roman Catholic (nominal) 80%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/br.html
Canada
[...]Population:
32,207,113 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
British Isles origin 28%, French origin 23%, other European 15%, Amerindian 2%, other, mostly Asian, African, Arab 6%, mixed background 26%
Religions:
Roman Catholic 46%, Protestant 36%, other 18%
note: based on the 1991 census[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/ca.html
Chile
[...]Population:
15,665,216 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
white and white-Amerindian 95%, Amerindian 3%, other 2%
Religions:
Roman Catholic 89%, Protestant 11%, Jewish NEGL%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/ci.html
South Africa
[...]Population:
42,768,678
note: South Africa took a census October 1996 that showed a population of 40,583,611 (after an official adjustment for a 6.8% underenumeration based on a postenumeration survey); estimates for this country explicitly take into account the effects of excess mortality due to AIDS; this can result in lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality and death rates, lower population and growth rates, and changes in the distribution of population by age and sex than would otherwise be expected (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
black 75.2%, white 13.6%, Colored 8.6%, Indian 2.6%
Religions:
Christian 68% (includes most whites and Coloreds, about 60% of blacks and about 40% of Indians), Muslim 2%, Hindu 1.5% (60% of Indians), indigenous beliefs and animist 28.5%.[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/sf.html
Venezuela
[...]Population:
24,654,694 (July 2003 est.)
[...]
Ethnic groups:
Spanish, Italian, Portuguese, Arab, German, African, indigenous people
Religions:
nominally Roman Catholic 96%, Protestant 2%, other 2%[...]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/ve.html
Last but not least, let’s have a look at the development of the Jewish population of the United States, which stood at 4,228,029 in 1927 already:
Jewish Population of the United States
(1654-2001)
Estimated Jewish Population
1654 25
1700 200-300
1776 1,000-2,500
1790 1,243-3,000
1800 2,000-2,500
1820 2,650-5,000
1826 6,000
1830 4,000-6,000
1840 15,000
1848 50,000
1850 50,000-100,000
1860 150,000-200,000
1870 200,000
1880 230,000-280,000
1890 400,000-475,000
1900 937,800-1,058,135
1910 1,508,000-2,349,754
1920 3,300,000-3,604,580
1927 4,228,029
1937 4,641,000-4,831,180
1940 4,770,000-4,975,000
1950 4,500,000-5,000,000
1960 5,367,000-5,531,500
1970 5,370,000-6,000,000
1980 5,500,000-5,920,890
1992 5,828,000
2000 6,136,000*
2001 6,155,000**
http://www.us-israel.org/jsource/US-Isr ... wpop1.html
So, where do we locate the expectable results of the supposed emigration of more than 3 million Polish Jews, plus at least as many Jews from the Soviet Union (considering natural population growth since 1926) within its borders as of 1 September 1939?
Ideas are welcome.